Thursday, January 31, 2008
I Thought it Was a Good Idea
So my idea of Crede going to the Yankees all but evaporated today, as the Bronx Bombers signed Morgan Ensberg to a one-year deal. He will be competing for time at first base, and while it is not an earth-shattering signing, it really does reduce the odds of the Yankees coming out as Crede suitors to about .01%. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that something beneficial works out with the Gyros.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
...Actually There Might Be
I've had a change of heart, or at least of thought, after my last post. I think there might be one other team who could seriously entertain the idea of trading for Crede: the New York Yankees. Hypothetically, the deal could conceivably consist of Crede, a reliever like MacDougal or Thornton, and potentially a utility player or prospect for a top ten Yankee pitching prospect. This prospect would ideally be Ian Kennedy, but Alan Horne, Jeff Marquez, Ross Ohlendorf, or Andrew Brackman are certainly more realistic. Lest you think I've lost my mind--yes, I know there is still that guy Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez manning third in pinstripes--let me run over some points that make this trade more plausible, if not entirely feasible:
I'm not saying that any deal with the Yankees will happen or is even being considered. I do know that the Yankees want to win and have the collateral to improve their 2008 roster via trades, so I'm not sure it's entirely out of the question. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.
- According to MLB.com, the Yankees have exactly one back-up player at second, short, and third. Stunningly, they are all the same person: Wilsom Betemit (he's even 3rd string at first!). They clearly have zero depth in the infield, and all of their top 10 prospects are either pitchers, catchers, or outfielders. More on this in argument #7.
- For this deal to work, A-Rod would have to move over to 1B or DH. Though he might be opposed to this, it makes sense on two levels: one, even though A-Rod has become a good defensive third baseman, Crede has a higher career fielding percentage at 3B (.968 vs. .960). True, fielding percentage isn't the end-all, be-all of actual fielding ability, but it works as an effective proxy. Two, A-Rod is a 32-year old who just signed a 10-year contract worth $275 million. Playing an active position like third increases his risk of an injury/decreases his durability, whereas playing first or DH maximizes his offensive potential over an extended period of time, which is where his true value lies. We have all seen how Barry Bonds has physically struggled to play left on an everyday occasion, whether this problem is steroid-induced or not. Limiting his defensive strain now will work wonders in ensuring he is still semi-productive in his early forties.
- You might say that the Yankees already have two first basemen in Jason Giambi and Shelley Duncan. True, but it is still their weakest position from an offensive standpoint--Giambi is clearly on his way down and I'm not sure Duncan is ready for everyday action (he's a 28-year old who made his major league debut last summer). Giambi is insanely expensive, no question, but fans aren't going to put up with another Juan Uribe-caliber season. He's entering the final season of his contract, and it's not impossible the Yankees could trade him if they agree to pay a large percentage of his salary. A change of scenery is best for everyone in this instance.
- Yankees fans are getting very impatient about winning another World Series, particularly in light of the Red Sox taking two of the last four. Despite their many shortcomings, the Steinbrenner family (and GM Brian Cashman) understand this and are doing all they can to maximize current and near-term success (they essentially gave up on the Johan Santana sweepstakes--missing a big name for the first time in a long time--because the prospects being demanded were too numerous and talented). Crede is a very inexpensive rental for a team with revenues like the Yankees, and they haven't shied away from dealing with Scott Boras clients in the past, increasing the likelihood of resigning him to a long-term extension.
- The Yankees bullpen needs some more stability, particularly now that Joba Chamberlain is moving to the starting rotation--thanks in part to their offseason transaction, the Sox now have an assortment of pieces to offer.
- Six of the top ten prospects in the Yankees farm system are right-handed pitchers; losing one will not kill their long-term success.
- Bringing in Crede gives the Yankees a lot of flexibility with their line-up, or at least more than having THE SAME BACK-UP FOR EVERY INFIELD POSITION. For instance, if Crede sits, A-Rod plays third and Giambi/Duncan plays first (exactly where they would be as things stood now). If Matsui sits, A-Rod can play first while Giambi/Duncan hits as the DH. No need for Wilson Betemit in any of this; they can play him if they want to, but at least now they have the option, instead of the need, to play him. What happens if Jeter or A-Rod gets hurt? Either Betemit plays every single game, or they make a trade mid-season, the urgency of which would cost them more in talent than a deal for Crede would now.
- Crede has found a knack for coming up with clutch hits during his time with the White Sox, something Yankee fans will remind you has not happened with A-Rod.
I'm not saying that any deal with the Yankees will happen or is even being considered. I do know that the Yankees want to win and have the collateral to improve their 2008 roster via trades, so I'm not sure it's entirely out of the question. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.
Isn't There Anywhere Else Joe Can Go?
I've been looking around, and the short answer is no. San Francisco really is the only team in enough trouble at 3B to take a shot at Crede, and they may even pass him up for Morgan Ensberg. The Phillies would have made even more sense than the Giants, but they signed Pedro Feliz, the man Crede would be replacing in SF, to a two-year deal a couple days ago. I'm beginning to think my previous assessment of that deal being 'the best thing that could have happened to the White Sox' would be better stated as 'the worst thing that could have happened to the White Sox.' Philly has great pitching talent in the farm system and they're looking to contend this year, meaning they wouldn't mind a rent-a-player of Crede's caliber, something the Giants' fans have been whining about in the midst of the Lowry rumors.
Crede really is blocking Josh Fields at 3B, given that 10 out of 10 experts will tell you that Fields is the future of the Sox at third (well 9 out of 10, but I don't really count Phil Rogers...). And we could keep him at Triple-A, but does that really make sense for a guy whose rookie stats, projected out over a full season, equate to 37 HR and 107 RBI? Granted his BA and OBP are far from where we'd like them, and an improvement in them would probably dilute his power numbers a bit, but that's still a helluva lot of pop out of your seven hitter. Fields is no spring chicken at 25, and at this point he gains absolutely nothing from playing another season at Charlotte. Ozzie and Kenny are out of their minds if they leave him off the Opening Day roster, regardless of whether or not Crede has been moved by then.
I'm beginning to think that Kenny should just trade Crede (and someone else, if necessary) for Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez, or perhaps one of the Gyros' pitching prospects, and bring this saga to a close. Sanchez is two years younger (25), but Correia put up much more impressive numbers in a limited role last season after moving out of the bullpen. However, Sanchez does have the higher ceiling and the better stuff, so while Correia might contribute more this season, Sanchez probably makes the most sense n the long run.
It's not a perfect scenario, but the longer we wait the better the chance the Giants fill up their void at third. And when that happens, Crede literally has nowhere to go. It's an awkward situation that should be handled expediently to benefit both Crede and Fields--as the Bulls proved this year with the Kobe affair, serious trade rumors that do not come to fruition can seriously affect chemistry and performance.
Crede really is blocking Josh Fields at 3B, given that 10 out of 10 experts will tell you that Fields is the future of the Sox at third (well 9 out of 10, but I don't really count Phil Rogers...). And we could keep him at Triple-A, but does that really make sense for a guy whose rookie stats, projected out over a full season, equate to 37 HR and 107 RBI? Granted his BA and OBP are far from where we'd like them, and an improvement in them would probably dilute his power numbers a bit, but that's still a helluva lot of pop out of your seven hitter. Fields is no spring chicken at 25, and at this point he gains absolutely nothing from playing another season at Charlotte. Ozzie and Kenny are out of their minds if they leave him off the Opening Day roster, regardless of whether or not Crede has been moved by then.
I'm beginning to think that Kenny should just trade Crede (and someone else, if necessary) for Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez, or perhaps one of the Gyros' pitching prospects, and bring this saga to a close. Sanchez is two years younger (25), but Correia put up much more impressive numbers in a limited role last season after moving out of the bullpen. However, Sanchez does have the higher ceiling and the better stuff, so while Correia might contribute more this season, Sanchez probably makes the most sense n the long run.
It's not a perfect scenario, but the longer we wait the better the chance the Giants fill up their void at third. And when that happens, Crede literally has nowhere to go. It's an awkward situation that should be handled expediently to benefit both Crede and Fields--as the Bulls proved this year with the Kobe affair, serious trade rumors that do not come to fruition can seriously affect chemistry and performance.
I Despise Noah Lowry
Many people have been speculating about a Joe Crede-for-Noah Lowry swap between the Sox and Giants, and after doing a little research, I am officially and adamantly opposed to this deal (as are many Giants fans, interestingly enough). To get you on the same page as I am, let's look at some numbers from 2007:
Noah Lowry:
IP: 156.0
WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 5.02
K/BB: 87/87
John Danks:
IP: 139.0
WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 7.06
K/BB: 109/54
Lowry posted 14 wins in 2007, compared to Danks' 6. His WHIP of 1.55 was almost 0.2 above the NL average, and would presumably increase by an additional 0.1 the minute he joined the AL ranks. And a K/BB of 1.0? Are you kidding me?
If Lowry joined the Sox, he would fill one of the back three spots in the rotation, inevitably raising the question of how much better is he than Gavin Floyd, the odd man out in this case? Anyone who has read this blog knows I'm a firm believer that Floyd is a solid starter...for a Double-A team. But Lowry hasn't topped 160 IP in the past two seasons, doesn't strike people out, and concedes a lot of baserunners, so I'm not totally sure that the value he adds over Floyd is worth Joe Crede. Actually, I'm convinced it's not.
Unless we throw together a massive package for Matt Cain (since I have since learned that Tim Lincecum is all but untouchable), we are not going to get a starting pitcher from the Giants that will benefit us greatly in 2008. And creating a package deal would effectively undermine the other acquisitions Kenny has made this offseason, so I am beginning to believe that the only way a deal with the Giants makes sense is if it is centered around some of their top prospects.
I would much rather see Jack Egbert, Gavin, and Lance Broadway battle it out for the 5th starter's spot in Spring Training than waste Joe Crede's value on an NL guy who all signs point to won't translate well into the AL. Thank God the Giants fans are convinced that Lowry's a much more valuable piece than Crede; if Brian Sabean feels the same way, he won't even give Kenny the chance to screw this up.
Noah Lowry:
IP: 156.0
WHIP: 1.55
K/9: 5.02
K/BB: 87/87
John Danks:
IP: 139.0
WHIP: 1.54
K/9: 7.06
K/BB: 109/54
Lowry posted 14 wins in 2007, compared to Danks' 6. His WHIP of 1.55 was almost 0.2 above the NL average, and would presumably increase by an additional 0.1 the minute he joined the AL ranks. And a K/BB of 1.0? Are you kidding me?
If Lowry joined the Sox, he would fill one of the back three spots in the rotation, inevitably raising the question of how much better is he than Gavin Floyd, the odd man out in this case? Anyone who has read this blog knows I'm a firm believer that Floyd is a solid starter...for a Double-A team. But Lowry hasn't topped 160 IP in the past two seasons, doesn't strike people out, and concedes a lot of baserunners, so I'm not totally sure that the value he adds over Floyd is worth Joe Crede. Actually, I'm convinced it's not.
Unless we throw together a massive package for Matt Cain (since I have since learned that Tim Lincecum is all but untouchable), we are not going to get a starting pitcher from the Giants that will benefit us greatly in 2008. And creating a package deal would effectively undermine the other acquisitions Kenny has made this offseason, so I am beginning to believe that the only way a deal with the Giants makes sense is if it is centered around some of their top prospects.
I would much rather see Jack Egbert, Gavin, and Lance Broadway battle it out for the 5th starter's spot in Spring Training than waste Joe Crede's value on an NL guy who all signs point to won't translate well into the AL. Thank God the Giants fans are convinced that Lowry's a much more valuable piece than Crede; if Brian Sabean feels the same way, he won't even give Kenny the chance to screw this up.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Where the Sox Go From Here
I've been trying to write this post for some time, I just haven't been able to devote enough thought to make it worth anyone's while (including mine) until now. Hope I'm not wasting your time, as I'm not even confident in my own ideas at the moment.
Where the Sox stand: We (or just Kenny) are looking to compete for a World Series title in 2008. This is dreadfully optimistic by any stretch of the imagination, so let's just say we're looking to make the postseason. The Tigers and the Indians are clearly the front-runners in the AL Central, while the Twins are looking to sell Santana for a ring in 2010 and/or 2011 and the Royals are, well, the Royals (Note: the Twins agreed to deal Santana to the Mets pending a physical while I was writing this). With this in mind, let's say that our current standing puts us in 3rd place in the division. There is no shame in this, as the Central should prove to be the most competitive division in baseball; however, there's also no glory in calling it a season in September, so we have some work to do. Scott Merkin, the White Sox beat writer for MLB.com, envisions us as a 84- to 87-win team in his latest mailbag, which should put us right in the mix for third. However, Merkin tends to paint an excessively bright picture of the organization regardless of the circumstances, so the fact that he doesn't even see us competing for a playoff spot should be of great concern. So, if we really are committed to bringing another championship to the South Side, Kenny's busy offseason cannot end until Opening Day.
What the Sox should do: There is absolutely no question that starting pitching is the most vulnerable area for the Sox as things stand right now. Our projected back three starters each had an ERA over 5.00 last season, and a repeat of this will ensure we don't hit 75 wins, not to mention the 90+ it will take for a playoff berth. Now, keep in mind that Contreras was going through an ugly divorce (it wouldn't be the first time personal issues have carried over onto the field) and Danks started the season as a 21-year old. However, hoping for at least two massive rebound seasons, let alone three, is taking a HUGE leap of faith, particularly when Gavin Floyd has hardly even shown flashes of competence as a major league starter.
We can all agree that Joe Crede is our most logical trade chip. His contract is very affordable at just over $5 million this season, and he boasts both above-average offensive power and all-around defense. San Francisco is the most obvious destination for him, for a number of reasons. First, they currently do not have a 3rd baseman--Pedro Feliz rejected their two-year offer before signing with the Phillies, which was just about the best thing that could have happened to the Sox. Second, they have zero team power (I mean, struggling to hit 100 HR) after losing Barry. Third, the combination of Crede and Omar Vizquel on the left side of the infield could be almost impenetrable. Fourth, the fact that his contract expires after this year is beneficial in two ways: one, it limits the downside risk should he get injured again, and two, the Giants' third base super-prospect Angel Villalona may be ready by Opening Day 2009.
Fifth, and most importantly from the White Sox perspective, the Giants have the pitching strength and depth to make a deal for a starter feasible. We could try to get Noah Lowry in a straight-up swap, or better yet, throw in a package for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. The question becomes, what package could bait Brian Sabean into giving up Cain or Lincecum? One idea is to dangle Crede, Aaron Poreda (the Sox new number one prospect), and another piece, be it a prospect or everyday player. Poreda has a fairly high ceiling and attended the University of San Francisco, so it's actually relatively conceivable. On the flip side, KW would have given up another top prospect (five in this offseason alone, none of which brought in a superstar), and I'm not sure Sox fans would respond kindly to further mortgaging our future for the terribly marginal chance of winning one this year. It certainly is an intriguing thought, however, particularly if it could land us Cain.
For fun's sake, let's say this Crede & Poreda deal goes through and Matt Cain is in a White Sox uniform come April 1st. What then? Clearly, the organization's main goal needs to be rebuilding the farm system. This means, first and foremost, taking a major league-ready prospect with the 9th pick in the June draft. (We could have had another solid pick if it weren't for the Linebrink signing, but we'll have to deal.) As I mentioned in an earlier post, we wait to see how we fare throughout the season before deciding what to do with Orlando Cabrera (assuming we don't sign him to an extension in the near future)--if we're winning, let him go after the season and grab the compensation picks; if we're losing, trade him to a contender for prospects. Another viable package option is Brian Anderson, who is all but done with this organization, but probably won't get much in return unless he has a stellar Spring Training.
Let's hope the one time we actually need Kenny to make some moves, he doesn't get cold feet. As painfully ironic as that would be, it wouldn't compare to the agony of watching Gavin Floyd start for an entire season.
Where the Sox stand: We (or just Kenny) are looking to compete for a World Series title in 2008. This is dreadfully optimistic by any stretch of the imagination, so let's just say we're looking to make the postseason. The Tigers and the Indians are clearly the front-runners in the AL Central, while the Twins are looking to sell Santana for a ring in 2010 and/or 2011 and the Royals are, well, the Royals (Note: the Twins agreed to deal Santana to the Mets pending a physical while I was writing this). With this in mind, let's say that our current standing puts us in 3rd place in the division. There is no shame in this, as the Central should prove to be the most competitive division in baseball; however, there's also no glory in calling it a season in September, so we have some work to do. Scott Merkin, the White Sox beat writer for MLB.com, envisions us as a 84- to 87-win team in his latest mailbag, which should put us right in the mix for third. However, Merkin tends to paint an excessively bright picture of the organization regardless of the circumstances, so the fact that he doesn't even see us competing for a playoff spot should be of great concern. So, if we really are committed to bringing another championship to the South Side, Kenny's busy offseason cannot end until Opening Day.
What the Sox should do: There is absolutely no question that starting pitching is the most vulnerable area for the Sox as things stand right now. Our projected back three starters each had an ERA over 5.00 last season, and a repeat of this will ensure we don't hit 75 wins, not to mention the 90+ it will take for a playoff berth. Now, keep in mind that Contreras was going through an ugly divorce (it wouldn't be the first time personal issues have carried over onto the field) and Danks started the season as a 21-year old. However, hoping for at least two massive rebound seasons, let alone three, is taking a HUGE leap of faith, particularly when Gavin Floyd has hardly even shown flashes of competence as a major league starter.
We can all agree that Joe Crede is our most logical trade chip. His contract is very affordable at just over $5 million this season, and he boasts both above-average offensive power and all-around defense. San Francisco is the most obvious destination for him, for a number of reasons. First, they currently do not have a 3rd baseman--Pedro Feliz rejected their two-year offer before signing with the Phillies, which was just about the best thing that could have happened to the Sox. Second, they have zero team power (I mean, struggling to hit 100 HR) after losing Barry. Third, the combination of Crede and Omar Vizquel on the left side of the infield could be almost impenetrable. Fourth, the fact that his contract expires after this year is beneficial in two ways: one, it limits the downside risk should he get injured again, and two, the Giants' third base super-prospect Angel Villalona may be ready by Opening Day 2009.
Fifth, and most importantly from the White Sox perspective, the Giants have the pitching strength and depth to make a deal for a starter feasible. We could try to get Noah Lowry in a straight-up swap, or better yet, throw in a package for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. The question becomes, what package could bait Brian Sabean into giving up Cain or Lincecum? One idea is to dangle Crede, Aaron Poreda (the Sox new number one prospect), and another piece, be it a prospect or everyday player. Poreda has a fairly high ceiling and attended the University of San Francisco, so it's actually relatively conceivable. On the flip side, KW would have given up another top prospect (five in this offseason alone, none of which brought in a superstar), and I'm not sure Sox fans would respond kindly to further mortgaging our future for the terribly marginal chance of winning one this year. It certainly is an intriguing thought, however, particularly if it could land us Cain.
For fun's sake, let's say this Crede & Poreda deal goes through and Matt Cain is in a White Sox uniform come April 1st. What then? Clearly, the organization's main goal needs to be rebuilding the farm system. This means, first and foremost, taking a major league-ready prospect with the 9th pick in the June draft. (We could have had another solid pick if it weren't for the Linebrink signing, but we'll have to deal.) As I mentioned in an earlier post, we wait to see how we fare throughout the season before deciding what to do with Orlando Cabrera (assuming we don't sign him to an extension in the near future)--if we're winning, let him go after the season and grab the compensation picks; if we're losing, trade him to a contender for prospects. Another viable package option is Brian Anderson, who is all but done with this organization, but probably won't get much in return unless he has a stellar Spring Training.
Let's hope the one time we actually need Kenny to make some moves, he doesn't get cold feet. As painfully ironic as that would be, it wouldn't compare to the agony of watching Gavin Floyd start for an entire season.
SoxFest LoveFest
I didn't really feel like posting anything about SoxFest, as the material is all the same and other people are getting paid to do it better than I would. So check out South Side Sox, Sox Machine, and whitesox.com if you're that intrigued by it. (SPOILER: If you haven't heard by now, Sox fans went much easier on Kenny than they did in their e-mails to beat writers and bloggers. Shocking. Pansies.)
Catching up on other news I have failed to report...
- Scott Merkin reports that the Sox made an incentive-laden offer to Bartolo Colon, which he rejected before disappearing. Insert fat joke here.
- The Sox are apparently showing interest in signing "Jurassic" Carl Everett, presumably to a minor-league deal. Yes, this is the man who said dinosaur bones were man-made frauds.
- Paul Konerko is staying in a White Sox uniform.
- The Sox are looking to ink Bobby Jenks and Orlando Cabrera to extensions. (Note: Jenks doesn't become a free agent until 2011...)
- If Joe Crede isn't traded by Opening Day, Josh Fields will start the season in Charlotte.
Catching up on other news I have failed to report...
- Scott Merkin reports that the Sox made an incentive-laden offer to Bartolo Colon, which he rejected before disappearing. Insert fat joke here.
- The Sox are apparently showing interest in signing "Jurassic" Carl Everett, presumably to a minor-league deal. Yes, this is the man who said dinosaur bones were man-made frauds.
- Paul Konerko is staying in a White Sox uniform.
- The Sox are looking to ink Bobby Jenks and Orlando Cabrera to extensions. (Note: Jenks doesn't become a free agent until 2011...)
- If Joe Crede isn't traded by Opening Day, Josh Fields will start the season in Charlotte.
Aardsma Sent to Boston
David Aardsma was traded on Monday to the Red Sox for two minor league reliever, Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich. No surprise here, as Kenny had 10 days to trade or release him after DFA-ing him last week.
Mota is a converted outfielder who pitched astonishingly well in his first season on the mound last year. Granted it was at low-A ball, but his 92-to-95 mph fastball seems to have impressed a number of people. Socolovich didn't turn as many heads.
Not sure that this trade will ever be discussed again, unless of course Aardsma goes lights out this (or any other) season. Mota is intriguing, however--the poor poor poor man's reverse Rick Ankiel. Or something like that.
Mota is a converted outfielder who pitched astonishingly well in his first season on the mound last year. Granted it was at low-A ball, but his 92-to-95 mph fastball seems to have impressed a number of people. Socolovich didn't turn as many heads.
Not sure that this trade will ever be discussed again, unless of course Aardsma goes lights out this (or any other) season. Mota is intriguing, however--the poor poor poor man's reverse Rick Ankiel. Or something like that.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Alexei Ramirez & The Situation at Second Base
I spent a lot of time looking at depth charts on MLB.com today, coming across a very interesting point in the process. Shockingly, the White Sox depth chart has Alexei Ramirez starting at second base. I don't know if this is a typo or oversight, but it does raise an unavoidable question that has not been brought up a lot: can, will, and should Ramirez take over the starting spot as early as possible if he plays well (presumably in AAA) and Danny Richar stumbles out of the gate? Similarly, and this question has been thrown around more frequently, what happens if Juan Uribe and Richar put up identical numbers in Spring Training? I know KW has said that the starting bid will not be handed to Richar, but who is the better player and who gives us the best chance of winning? And regardless of who wins the Opening Day start, how large/long a window to they have to succeed? Uribe is defensively superior, but we haven't seen him handle second in years. And while he does provide more power at the plate, Richar clearly gives us a higher OBP guy (not great, but higher) with presumably better speed on the basepaths.
In this light, I'm tempted to think Richar fits our needs best, or at least better than does Uribe. We already have plenty of pop out of the right side of the plate, and we need guys to hit for average and take some pitches. Richar is still working on both, but he did walk once every 11.6 at-bats, versus Uribe's 1 per 15.1 at-bats (up from once every 35.6 at-bats in 2006!). Richar also struck out once every 5.7 at-bats, compared with Uribe's average of once every 4.6 plate appearances. The differences aren't glaring, but they are improvements--and let's remember that it was Richar's rookie year as opposed to Uribe's seventh season of regular duty.
But back to Ramirez. Let's say he immediately plays as well as advertised and earns the starting job outright by June 15 (I know the odds are between slim and none, but just give it some thought). What then? Richar and Uribe are now in the identical situation of being adept reserve middle infielders, and therefore, particularly with Ozuna in the mix, one of them becomes expendable. Richar is owed about $4 million less, is four years younger, and likely has a higher ceiling, so Uribe makes the most sense to put on the block. This is bolstered by the fact that Uribe is only signed through this year--since we clearly aren't going to receive a compensation pick should he walk next offseason, no sense in holding onto a redundant, non-contributing player.
Okay, let's keep this going. If we're still assuming Ramirez blows everyone's mind in our little hypothetical situation, how does this impact the shortstop position? Two scenarios make sense, each dependent on the team's success this year. First, we're done by July 15 (i.e. we're clearly not going to vie for a playoff spot, let alone a World Series ring). We can trade Orlando Cabrera to a contender before the July 31 deadline for prospects, as his contract expires after this year. This helps upgrade our embarrassment of a farm system and gives Alexei major league experience at his preferred position, which will help us greatly in 2009. Once we're out of the playoff hunt and 'win now' mindset, we're free to look towards next year--it's almost a rebuilding half-year, since KW would never concede a full season.
In the second scenario, we have a valid shot at playing in the postseason, even if it won't necessarily mean a ring. We hold onto Cabrera through the season and let him sign elsewhere in December (assuming he puts together a productive season). This would (hopefully) land us a supplemental first-round pick in the 2009 draft, which ultimately satisfies everyone: we played competitively in 2008, which is what Kenny wants, and still managed to partially improve our outlook of future success, which is what the fans want (remember the initial outrage over the Swisher deal). In 2009, Alexei shifts over to short, Danny jumps back in at second, and we hope for the best.
There are clearly two promising options should Ramirez perform exceedingly well, but that's just it--a guy who has never faced major league pitching has to play out of his mind in a very short amount of time. I'm not sure that anyone's learning and success curves are as steep as I'm hoping for, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Here's to praying for that long shot.
In this light, I'm tempted to think Richar fits our needs best, or at least better than does Uribe. We already have plenty of pop out of the right side of the plate, and we need guys to hit for average and take some pitches. Richar is still working on both, but he did walk once every 11.6 at-bats, versus Uribe's 1 per 15.1 at-bats (up from once every 35.6 at-bats in 2006!). Richar also struck out once every 5.7 at-bats, compared with Uribe's average of once every 4.6 plate appearances. The differences aren't glaring, but they are improvements--and let's remember that it was Richar's rookie year as opposed to Uribe's seventh season of regular duty.
But back to Ramirez. Let's say he immediately plays as well as advertised and earns the starting job outright by June 15 (I know the odds are between slim and none, but just give it some thought). What then? Richar and Uribe are now in the identical situation of being adept reserve middle infielders, and therefore, particularly with Ozuna in the mix, one of them becomes expendable. Richar is owed about $4 million less, is four years younger, and likely has a higher ceiling, so Uribe makes the most sense to put on the block. This is bolstered by the fact that Uribe is only signed through this year--since we clearly aren't going to receive a compensation pick should he walk next offseason, no sense in holding onto a redundant, non-contributing player.
Okay, let's keep this going. If we're still assuming Ramirez blows everyone's mind in our little hypothetical situation, how does this impact the shortstop position? Two scenarios make sense, each dependent on the team's success this year. First, we're done by July 15 (i.e. we're clearly not going to vie for a playoff spot, let alone a World Series ring). We can trade Orlando Cabrera to a contender before the July 31 deadline for prospects, as his contract expires after this year. This helps upgrade our embarrassment of a farm system and gives Alexei major league experience at his preferred position, which will help us greatly in 2009. Once we're out of the playoff hunt and 'win now' mindset, we're free to look towards next year--it's almost a rebuilding half-year, since KW would never concede a full season.
In the second scenario, we have a valid shot at playing in the postseason, even if it won't necessarily mean a ring. We hold onto Cabrera through the season and let him sign elsewhere in December (assuming he puts together a productive season). This would (hopefully) land us a supplemental first-round pick in the 2009 draft, which ultimately satisfies everyone: we played competitively in 2008, which is what Kenny wants, and still managed to partially improve our outlook of future success, which is what the fans want (remember the initial outrage over the Swisher deal). In 2009, Alexei shifts over to short, Danny jumps back in at second, and we hope for the best.
There are clearly two promising options should Ramirez perform exceedingly well, but that's just it--a guy who has never faced major league pitching has to play out of his mind in a very short amount of time. I'm not sure that anyone's learning and success curves are as steep as I'm hoping for, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Here's to praying for that long shot.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
White Sox Officially Sign Octavio Dotel & Alexei Ramirez
Okay, this time it's for real (and yes I know I'm a day late). Dotel signed the two-year, $11 million deal that had been thrown around in the rumors last week, while Ramirez agreed to the expected four-year contract worth $4.75 million. The shock/surprise of adding both of these players had already worn off, because all Alexei had to do was pass a physical and I had a gut feeling/knew Dotel would be in a Sox uniform come March. To make room on the roster, David Aardsma was designated for assignment by the club, a fittingly anticlimactic conclusion to a disappointing White Sox career.
I've already made it known that I am in favor of both of these transactions (I don't think anyone can oppose the Ramirez signing). While the Dotel deal certainly carries with it a high level of risk due to his injury-prone nature, he and Ramirez have the potential to be two of the best free agent pick-ups in recent White Sox history. A lot of people are expressing their disapproval of Kenny's attempt to buy a bullpen, citing the unusually high levels of inconsistency associated with relievers, particularly in a hitter-friendly park like U.S. Cellular. However, the other option (excluding trades, of course) is to call up some young guns from Birmingham or Charlotte, which we tried last year--lest we forget the revolving door to the Sox bullpen in the second half of 2007--with disastrous results. The hurlers in our farm system have proven, for the most part, that they are not yet ready to pitch in the Majors, if they ever will be. So if Kenny is looking to win now, what other choice do we have but to overpay free agents that would otherwise have signed elsewhere for similar terms (though I doubt anyone would have given Linebrink four years)? I know a big part of this problem stems from Kenny trading away most of our farm system, but this is what we have now and we need to deal with it in the best possible way.
Even when considering the sometimes severe issues I've had with KW's deals this offseason, I must say I am impressed with the position in which he has put this team. The Swisher and Ramirez signings give us two long-term, extraordinarily manageable contracts upon which we can (hopefully) build an outfield and a line-up. Linebrink and Dotel give us two solid relievers when healthy, and in Linebrink's case, if he outperforms expectations, we do have him sealed up for four years. Uribe makes for a valuable back-up (though a very expensive one) and Cabrera gives us a much improved bat out of the shortstop position. The additions of Swisher and Quentin give us significant flexibility in how Ozzie plays the outfield, as well as added options should someone struggle.
On the flipside, we are left with three question marks in the rotation and a non-existent farm system, both of which must be addressed ASAP to ensure current and future success. More on that in a post coming soon.
I've already made it known that I am in favor of both of these transactions (I don't think anyone can oppose the Ramirez signing). While the Dotel deal certainly carries with it a high level of risk due to his injury-prone nature, he and Ramirez have the potential to be two of the best free agent pick-ups in recent White Sox history. A lot of people are expressing their disapproval of Kenny's attempt to buy a bullpen, citing the unusually high levels of inconsistency associated with relievers, particularly in a hitter-friendly park like U.S. Cellular. However, the other option (excluding trades, of course) is to call up some young guns from Birmingham or Charlotte, which we tried last year--lest we forget the revolving door to the Sox bullpen in the second half of 2007--with disastrous results. The hurlers in our farm system have proven, for the most part, that they are not yet ready to pitch in the Majors, if they ever will be. So if Kenny is looking to win now, what other choice do we have but to overpay free agents that would otherwise have signed elsewhere for similar terms (though I doubt anyone would have given Linebrink four years)? I know a big part of this problem stems from Kenny trading away most of our farm system, but this is what we have now and we need to deal with it in the best possible way.
Even when considering the sometimes severe issues I've had with KW's deals this offseason, I must say I am impressed with the position in which he has put this team. The Swisher and Ramirez signings give us two long-term, extraordinarily manageable contracts upon which we can (hopefully) build an outfield and a line-up. Linebrink and Dotel give us two solid relievers when healthy, and in Linebrink's case, if he outperforms expectations, we do have him sealed up for four years. Uribe makes for a valuable back-up (though a very expensive one) and Cabrera gives us a much improved bat out of the shortstop position. The additions of Swisher and Quentin give us significant flexibility in how Ozzie plays the outfield, as well as added options should someone struggle.
On the flipside, we are left with three question marks in the rotation and a non-existent farm system, both of which must be addressed ASAP to ensure current and future success. More on that in a post coming soon.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Dotel Rumors Premature
I guess MLBTR jumped the gun with regard to the Octavio Dotel rumors, as Scott Merkin of MLB.com was assured by Dotel's agent that no deal has been finalized. He says that there are six teams involved in contract discussions, but would not name any team other than the White Sox.
Personally, I have a feeling that Dotel will sign with the Sox in the next few days, hopefully for less than the $11 million being reported.
Personally, I have a feeling that Dotel will sign with the Sox in the next few days, hopefully for less than the $11 million being reported.
White Sox Sign Octavio Dotel
MLB Trade Rumors is reporting the White Sox have signed reliever Octavio Dotel to a two-year deal worth $11 million. The Sox are staying mum on whether or not this rumor is true, but it will likely be confirmed or denied in the next 24 hours.
This is a risky move for KW, but it could pay huge dividends should Dotel stay healthy--he's only pitched 56 innings in the past three years combined because of injuries. I think $11 million is way too much money to throw at him, not only because of his health problems but also because he got hit fairly hard in his few appearances last year. That said, I've always liked Dotel and don't think there is any question he can still bring it. He has the ability to provide considerable reliability for a very shaky bullpen, and his arrival likely moves Scott Linebrink to a role in which he pitches the earlier innings, which is great news for Sox fans because I'm not sold that Linebrink is the guy we want to hold the game for Bobby.
Everyone has to withhold judgment about this trade, positive or negative, until we see how Dotel holds up after the twenty or thirty innings mark. If he proves to be more durable than his recent past would indicate, this turns out to be a great signing, amplified by the fact that we got a top-notch reliever without conceding compensation draft picks (one of the big problems I had with the Linebrink deal). Like I said, I do think that it is too much money, but this winner's curse may prove to be a moot point should he pan out.
This is a risky move for KW, but it could pay huge dividends should Dotel stay healthy--he's only pitched 56 innings in the past three years combined because of injuries. I think $11 million is way too much money to throw at him, not only because of his health problems but also because he got hit fairly hard in his few appearances last year. That said, I've always liked Dotel and don't think there is any question he can still bring it. He has the ability to provide considerable reliability for a very shaky bullpen, and his arrival likely moves Scott Linebrink to a role in which he pitches the earlier innings, which is great news for Sox fans because I'm not sold that Linebrink is the guy we want to hold the game for Bobby.
Everyone has to withhold judgment about this trade, positive or negative, until we see how Dotel holds up after the twenty or thirty innings mark. If he proves to be more durable than his recent past would indicate, this turns out to be a great signing, amplified by the fact that we got a top-notch reliever without conceding compensation draft picks (one of the big problems I had with the Linebrink deal). Like I said, I do think that it is too much money, but this winner's curse may prove to be a moot point should he pan out.
Monday, January 14, 2008
Top 2008 White Sox Prospects
Baseball America's Phil Rogers released his annual list of the top ten prospects in the White Sox system. They are as follows:
1. Aaron Poreda
2. Lance Broadway
3. Jack Egbert
4. Jose Martinez
5. Chris Getz
6. John Ely
7. Juan Silverio
8. John Shelby
9. Adam Russell
10. Kyle McCulloch
A few comments on this piece. First, it's all but assured that Poreda is the unanimous top pick--we can agree on this much. Rogers says that even if the Alexei Ramirez deal had been finalized by now (physical still pending), Poreda would still be number one. Second, it's all but assured that McCulloch has a very low ceiling and will not become anything more than a sub-par 5th starter, if that. Third, Juan Silverio could (and should) become the face of the Sox in a few years, assuming Kenny doesn't ship him off. He's a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican (I think) who is apparently a freakish athlete with the tools to become something special. His age, of course, that he won't be ready for years; Rogers says at least 2011 in an earlier article.
Right now, I really believe Lance Broadway is the key to our farm system's success, a claim many will dispute. For one, let's acknowledge that there aren't a lot of people sold on Broadway, and Rogers is probably at least 2 spots off in his assessment. Essentially, he's a finesse pitcher without an excess of control (newly developed), which is kind of the definition of an inherent problem. However, his off-speed stuff, namely his curveball, is so impressive (best in the system, no question) that it could mask his other deficiencies in the event that they become less glaring. This gives him the potential to develop into a poor man's Barry Zito, who is certainly not worth $126 million but did win a Cy Young.
I guess my point is this: people are beginning to lose faith in Lance. If he busts, he's just another posterboy for the inadequacies of the White Sox farm system and a waste of a first-round draft pick. But if he becomes a solid number 4 starter in 2 years, which is certainly possible, we would have taken a low-ceiling guy and put him in a role in which little is expected of him in order to allow him to maximize his limited potential. He will never be a staff ace, but we don't need him to be one--lest we forget, our problems lie at the back end of the rotation. Sure, this isn't exactly the ideal scenario for a former first-round pick, but hindsight is 20/2o and you play the cards you're dealt.
Rogers' full piece can be read here.
Quickly, another huge point which I have skipped over is the utter lack of non-pitching prospects--terrifying. More on that at a later date.
1. Aaron Poreda
2. Lance Broadway
3. Jack Egbert
4. Jose Martinez
5. Chris Getz
6. John Ely
7. Juan Silverio
8. John Shelby
9. Adam Russell
10. Kyle McCulloch
A few comments on this piece. First, it's all but assured that Poreda is the unanimous top pick--we can agree on this much. Rogers says that even if the Alexei Ramirez deal had been finalized by now (physical still pending), Poreda would still be number one. Second, it's all but assured that McCulloch has a very low ceiling and will not become anything more than a sub-par 5th starter, if that. Third, Juan Silverio could (and should) become the face of the Sox in a few years, assuming Kenny doesn't ship him off. He's a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican (I think) who is apparently a freakish athlete with the tools to become something special. His age, of course, that he won't be ready for years; Rogers says at least 2011 in an earlier article.
Right now, I really believe Lance Broadway is the key to our farm system's success, a claim many will dispute. For one, let's acknowledge that there aren't a lot of people sold on Broadway, and Rogers is probably at least 2 spots off in his assessment. Essentially, he's a finesse pitcher without an excess of control (newly developed), which is kind of the definition of an inherent problem. However, his off-speed stuff, namely his curveball, is so impressive (best in the system, no question) that it could mask his other deficiencies in the event that they become less glaring. This gives him the potential to develop into a poor man's Barry Zito, who is certainly not worth $126 million but did win a Cy Young.
I guess my point is this: people are beginning to lose faith in Lance. If he busts, he's just another posterboy for the inadequacies of the White Sox farm system and a waste of a first-round draft pick. But if he becomes a solid number 4 starter in 2 years, which is certainly possible, we would have taken a low-ceiling guy and put him in a role in which little is expected of him in order to allow him to maximize his limited potential. He will never be a staff ace, but we don't need him to be one--lest we forget, our problems lie at the back end of the rotation. Sure, this isn't exactly the ideal scenario for a former first-round pick, but hindsight is 20/2o and you play the cards you're dealt.
Rogers' full piece can be read here.
Quickly, another huge point which I have skipped over is the utter lack of non-pitching prospects--terrifying. More on that at a later date.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
The Ideal 2008 White Sox Opening Day Roster
Because it's late and I'm bored and there's nothing on TV, I figured I'd run through the 25-man Opening Day roster set by the new manager, yours truly. Enjoy.
Batting Order:
1. Orlando Cabrera (SS)
2. Nick Swisher (CF)
3. Jim Thome (DH)
4. Paul Konerko (1B)
5. Jermaine Dye (RF)
6. A.J. Pierzynski (C)
7. Josh Fields (3B)
8. Danny Richar (2B)
9. Jerry Owens (LF)
Reserves:
1. Carlos Quentin (OF)
2. Pablo Ozuna (IF)
3. Juan Uribe (IF)
4. Toby Hall (C)
5. Alexei Ramirez* (2B, SS, CF)
Starting Pitchers:
1. Mark Buehrle (L)
2. Javier Vasquez (R)
3. Jose Contreras (R)
4. John Danks (L)
5. Jack Egbert (R)
Relief Pitchers:
1. Ehren Wasserman (R)
2. Nick Masset (R)
3. Scott Linebrink (R)
4. Mike MacDougal (R)
5. Matt Thornton (L)
6. Bobby Jenks (R)
First off, Owens and Swisher are essentially interchangeable in left and center, but I'll give Swisher the nod in center because of his superior arm strength. I'm also assuming that Crede is gone by then (hopefully bringing in a pitcher), opening up third for Josh.
It's going to be very interesting to see how our batting order ends up, because there is no preset spot for Jerry, Orlando, or Swisher. Jerry certainly gives us the best speed at the lead-off spot, but he doesn't get on base enough and has zero pop (12 extra base hits in 356 at-bats for a whopping .312 SLG). Swisher gives us the best OBP at the top of the order (by a long shot), but isn't nearly fast enough, as we all know how Ozzie loves to run the 1 hitter. Cabrera has pretty impressive speed, and while his OBP could be higher and the coaches would probably like him to see more pitches per at-bat, he could fill this role nicely. Swisher has the power to bat lower in the order (probably 6, tops 5), but putting him in front of Owens or Richar would be a complete waste of his ability to get on base, so he fits very well into the 2-spot. Owens could feasibly bat lead-off, so it makes perfect sense to drop him to 9th as the so-called 'second lead-off' hitter.
The rotation is predictable, save for my inclusion of Jack Egbert in the 5-hole. I know I rag on Gavin Floyd incessantly, but this prediction is not made out of spite in any way; I simply think Egbert is a superior major league player who gives us a considerably better chance to compete. Gavin also has proven that he can't pitch out of the bullpen, so even if he doesn't start the season in Charlotte, I can all but assure you he'll be there by mid-June. I really think we should just throw him in as an extra piece in a trade and hope we can get some single-A, high-ceiling guy in return. No skin off our backs.
As long as they can stay healthy and relatively productive, we really do have a solid reserve corps. Should Richar continue his Winter League struggles at the plate (thanks, Greg Walker), Uribe is about as solid a replacement as we can ask for. I've said before and I'll say again, I am convinced he will be a very welcome surprise working out of a reduced role this season. Most people project Quentin to start in place of Owens, but since Carlos won't be fully recovered from surgery on his left labrum and rotator cuff until Spring Training, no need to rush his overly injury-prone self back. Quentin can become a huge OBP asset if handed the starting job, so I have a nagging feeling he will replace Jerry before the season is well underway. This sucks for Jerry's development, and it kills our team speed, but Quentin is the better player with a higher ceiling.
I'm beginning to think I'm the world's largest Alexei Ramirez fan, which isn't cool because now I'm starting to doubt his potential. I still think he can be a 20 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB guy, particularly at The Cell, but it's going to take a fair amount of time and skill development. He'll probably start the season at Birmingham (hence the *, I just don't know who else would step in--Brian Anderson maybe), and I can only hope he progresses quickly, but because of the Swisher trade he's not going to get a shot at any starting job unless Owens and Quentin falter (barring injury, knock on wood). So we might as well let him hone his skills in a more competitive league than Cuban ball before throwing him into the fire.
One thing to notice about our relievers is Thornton as the lone southpaw--this will almost certainly have to be addressed in the coming months. Boone Logan (who is a lefty) may actually have the upper hand on a roster spot over Masset as we speak, but I'm just not sold on Logan as a consistent middle reliever. Masset pitched very well in a limited role last year (although he has to significantly cut down on the BBs and up the K's), but they may keep him in Triple-A to keep him progressing as a starter.
Writing all this out is making me feel a little better about the 2008 White Sox, particularly on offense. I would love/kill for Kenny to pull off a deal to bring in another starter, because even if Egbert tops Floyd in Spring Training, Contreras is bordering on a liability. Our bullpen is a crapshoot--Linebrink will probably add a little reliability, I'm just not convinced it's going to be all that much--and is hugely dependent on big rebound years. Call me a sucker, but I do see potential in Wasserman. At least more than Dewon Day--the guy makes Gavin look like Christy Mathewson.
Batting Order:
1. Orlando Cabrera (SS)
2. Nick Swisher (CF)
3. Jim Thome (DH)
4. Paul Konerko (1B)
5. Jermaine Dye (RF)
6. A.J. Pierzynski (C)
7. Josh Fields (3B)
8. Danny Richar (2B)
9. Jerry Owens (LF)
Reserves:
1. Carlos Quentin (OF)
2. Pablo Ozuna (IF)
3. Juan Uribe (IF)
4. Toby Hall (C)
5. Alexei Ramirez* (2B, SS, CF)
Starting Pitchers:
1. Mark Buehrle (L)
2. Javier Vasquez (R)
3. Jose Contreras (R)
4. John Danks (L)
5. Jack Egbert (R)
Relief Pitchers:
1. Ehren Wasserman (R)
2. Nick Masset (R)
3. Scott Linebrink (R)
4. Mike MacDougal (R)
5. Matt Thornton (L)
6. Bobby Jenks (R)
First off, Owens and Swisher are essentially interchangeable in left and center, but I'll give Swisher the nod in center because of his superior arm strength. I'm also assuming that Crede is gone by then (hopefully bringing in a pitcher), opening up third for Josh.
It's going to be very interesting to see how our batting order ends up, because there is no preset spot for Jerry, Orlando, or Swisher. Jerry certainly gives us the best speed at the lead-off spot, but he doesn't get on base enough and has zero pop (12 extra base hits in 356 at-bats for a whopping .312 SLG). Swisher gives us the best OBP at the top of the order (by a long shot), but isn't nearly fast enough, as we all know how Ozzie loves to run the 1 hitter. Cabrera has pretty impressive speed, and while his OBP could be higher and the coaches would probably like him to see more pitches per at-bat, he could fill this role nicely. Swisher has the power to bat lower in the order (probably 6, tops 5), but putting him in front of Owens or Richar would be a complete waste of his ability to get on base, so he fits very well into the 2-spot. Owens could feasibly bat lead-off, so it makes perfect sense to drop him to 9th as the so-called 'second lead-off' hitter.
The rotation is predictable, save for my inclusion of Jack Egbert in the 5-hole. I know I rag on Gavin Floyd incessantly, but this prediction is not made out of spite in any way; I simply think Egbert is a superior major league player who gives us a considerably better chance to compete. Gavin also has proven that he can't pitch out of the bullpen, so even if he doesn't start the season in Charlotte, I can all but assure you he'll be there by mid-June. I really think we should just throw him in as an extra piece in a trade and hope we can get some single-A, high-ceiling guy in return. No skin off our backs.
As long as they can stay healthy and relatively productive, we really do have a solid reserve corps. Should Richar continue his Winter League struggles at the plate (thanks, Greg Walker), Uribe is about as solid a replacement as we can ask for. I've said before and I'll say again, I am convinced he will be a very welcome surprise working out of a reduced role this season. Most people project Quentin to start in place of Owens, but since Carlos won't be fully recovered from surgery on his left labrum and rotator cuff until Spring Training, no need to rush his overly injury-prone self back. Quentin can become a huge OBP asset if handed the starting job, so I have a nagging feeling he will replace Jerry before the season is well underway. This sucks for Jerry's development, and it kills our team speed, but Quentin is the better player with a higher ceiling.
I'm beginning to think I'm the world's largest Alexei Ramirez fan, which isn't cool because now I'm starting to doubt his potential. I still think he can be a 20 HR, 75 RBI, 25 SB guy, particularly at The Cell, but it's going to take a fair amount of time and skill development. He'll probably start the season at Birmingham (hence the *, I just don't know who else would step in--Brian Anderson maybe), and I can only hope he progresses quickly, but because of the Swisher trade he's not going to get a shot at any starting job unless Owens and Quentin falter (barring injury, knock on wood). So we might as well let him hone his skills in a more competitive league than Cuban ball before throwing him into the fire.
One thing to notice about our relievers is Thornton as the lone southpaw--this will almost certainly have to be addressed in the coming months. Boone Logan (who is a lefty) may actually have the upper hand on a roster spot over Masset as we speak, but I'm just not sold on Logan as a consistent middle reliever. Masset pitched very well in a limited role last year (although he has to significantly cut down on the BBs and up the K's), but they may keep him in Triple-A to keep him progressing as a starter.
Writing all this out is making me feel a little better about the 2008 White Sox, particularly on offense. I would love/kill for Kenny to pull off a deal to bring in another starter, because even if Egbert tops Floyd in Spring Training, Contreras is bordering on a liability. Our bullpen is a crapshoot--Linebrink will probably add a little reliability, I'm just not convinced it's going to be all that much--and is hugely dependent on big rebound years. Call me a sucker, but I do see potential in Wasserman. At least more than Dewon Day--the guy makes Gavin look like Christy Mathewson.
Update: Konerko to Angels?
KW is denying talking to anyone in the Angels organization since the Winter Meetings, so it looks as if Sox fans can release a collective sigh. Paulie K. will be a South Sider for another day...
Angels & Sox in Talks About Konerko?
MLBTR is reporting the Angels and White Sox are in talks about a deal for Paul Konerko. Doug Padilla of The Daily Breeze confirms these rumors, saying the Sox are trying to get Chone Figgins and relief help in any trade.
Let's say that, barring a trade with the Angels, Nick Swisher starts the season in left. If this deal happens, Swisher will likely move over to first base and Figgins will probably wind up in left. Can anybody really see the combination of Figgins, Swisher, and a reliever winning more games for us than Swisher and Konerko? As much as we need relief help, we need starting help much, much more. Which is why the only way this deal turns in the Sox favor is if we can structure it so they include a starter, namely Kelvim Escobar or Jered Weaver, or even top prospect Nick Adenhart.
Konerko is the heart of one of the most dangerous 3-4-5 combinations in the Majors, not to mention a fan and clubhouse favorite. So, even if Figgins were a statistic upgrade over Konerko (which he is not, given our reliance on the long ball--no, we are not a small ball team), this deal would disrupt team chemistry and piss off both the players and the fans.
If you are not rebuilding in a given season, and Kenny has so adamantly assured us he is not, any trade you make must put you in a better position to contend that year. It's just common sense. From what is being reported, there is no way getting rid of Konerko is going to make us a better team, though I wouldn't be surprised to see KW sign off on unfavorable terms.
Just for fun, here are two hypothetical trades between the Angels and Sox that could involve Konerko:
1. Konerko for Figgins and Scot Shieldes/Justin Speier - It works for the Angels because they have pitching depth and get their man, and it works for the Sox because they get their ideal leadoff/high-OBP man, as well as a power arm that can actually pitch out of the bullpen. However, this trade doesn't make us any better at the end of the day, namely because it doesn't fill the gaping void of skill caused by Gavin Floyd's presence at the back of the rotation.
2. Konerko and Joe Crede for Figgins and Kelvim Escobar - If you think we get screwed on this trade, remember that Crede is coming back from an injury and Konerko an off-year, so we're going to get about 80 cents on the dollar for both of them. With Fields having proven he can be effective as an everyday player, it is no secret Crede has become expendable (and probably our most logical trade chip). He's under contract for one more year, so the Angels are a perfect trade partner given their contender status. This makes even more sense due to the fact that the Angels lose their starting third baseman in Figgins, and they have a surplus of near-ready pitching talent in their farm system to replace Escobar. Kelvim is a very solid starter who doesn't give up a ton of home runs, a necessity in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular.
As much as I would love to steal their pitching prospects, KW is clearly only looking for people to contribute immediately, or else he wouldn't have made the Swisher trade. And while I love Paulie, I'd be happy (enough) if KW pulled off this second deal (only because of the position we're now in based on the other deals he's made). Unfortunately, I think it might be a little far-fetched, and Kenny is developing a reputation for getting the short-end of the trade stick.
Let's say that, barring a trade with the Angels, Nick Swisher starts the season in left. If this deal happens, Swisher will likely move over to first base and Figgins will probably wind up in left. Can anybody really see the combination of Figgins, Swisher, and a reliever winning more games for us than Swisher and Konerko? As much as we need relief help, we need starting help much, much more. Which is why the only way this deal turns in the Sox favor is if we can structure it so they include a starter, namely Kelvim Escobar or Jered Weaver, or even top prospect Nick Adenhart.
Konerko is the heart of one of the most dangerous 3-4-5 combinations in the Majors, not to mention a fan and clubhouse favorite. So, even if Figgins were a statistic upgrade over Konerko (which he is not, given our reliance on the long ball--no, we are not a small ball team), this deal would disrupt team chemistry and piss off both the players and the fans.
If you are not rebuilding in a given season, and Kenny has so adamantly assured us he is not, any trade you make must put you in a better position to contend that year. It's just common sense. From what is being reported, there is no way getting rid of Konerko is going to make us a better team, though I wouldn't be surprised to see KW sign off on unfavorable terms.
Just for fun, here are two hypothetical trades between the Angels and Sox that could involve Konerko:
1. Konerko for Figgins and Scot Shieldes/Justin Speier - It works for the Angels because they have pitching depth and get their man, and it works for the Sox because they get their ideal leadoff/high-OBP man, as well as a power arm that can actually pitch out of the bullpen. However, this trade doesn't make us any better at the end of the day, namely because it doesn't fill the gaping void of skill caused by Gavin Floyd's presence at the back of the rotation.
2. Konerko and Joe Crede for Figgins and Kelvim Escobar - If you think we get screwed on this trade, remember that Crede is coming back from an injury and Konerko an off-year, so we're going to get about 80 cents on the dollar for both of them. With Fields having proven he can be effective as an everyday player, it is no secret Crede has become expendable (and probably our most logical trade chip). He's under contract for one more year, so the Angels are a perfect trade partner given their contender status. This makes even more sense due to the fact that the Angels lose their starting third baseman in Figgins, and they have a surplus of near-ready pitching talent in their farm system to replace Escobar. Kelvim is a very solid starter who doesn't give up a ton of home runs, a necessity in hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular.
As much as I would love to steal their pitching prospects, KW is clearly only looking for people to contribute immediately, or else he wouldn't have made the Swisher trade. And while I love Paulie, I'd be happy (enough) if KW pulled off this second deal (only because of the position we're now in based on the other deals he's made). Unfortunately, I think it might be a little far-fetched, and Kenny is developing a reputation for getting the short-end of the trade stick.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Links on the Swisher Deal
To ensure that I didn't persuade anyone on the Swisher deal against their own wishes, I've added an array of links to let the readers come to their own conclusions:
- Scott Merkin of MLB.com writes about the impact of Swisher on the Sox, as well as what it took to bring him to the South Side. Not quite sure how KW can say Gio wouldn't factor into the Sox rotation until 2010 or 2011; I have an easy time seeing him having been a July call-up.
- Over at South Side Sox, The Cheat echoes my displeasure with the Swisher trade. I like how Kenny has violated The Cheat's 4 rules to the off-season plan. Notice, however, their optimism (even if forced), particularly with regard to Jack Egbert.
- At White Sox Pride, Scott Reifert, the team's VP of communications seems encouraged by the trade. But I suppose that's part of the job description...
When I've had more time (and a couple more drinks) to help deal with this blow, I'll attempt to present a more positive spin on the Swisher deal.
- Scott Merkin of MLB.com writes about the impact of Swisher on the Sox, as well as what it took to bring him to the South Side. Not quite sure how KW can say Gio wouldn't factor into the Sox rotation until 2010 or 2011; I have an easy time seeing him having been a July call-up.
- Over at South Side Sox, The Cheat echoes my displeasure with the Swisher trade. I like how Kenny has violated The Cheat's 4 rules to the off-season plan. Notice, however, their optimism (even if forced), particularly with regard to Jack Egbert.
- At White Sox Pride, Scott Reifert, the team's VP of communications seems encouraged by the trade. But I suppose that's part of the job description...
When I've had more time (and a couple more drinks) to help deal with this blow, I'll attempt to present a more positive spin on the Swisher deal.
White Sox Trade Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, & Ryan Sweeney to the A's for Nick Swisher
When I first saw the details of this trade, I made a b line for the liquor cabinet. I may be proven wrong in the next few years, and I certainly hope that is the case, but there is no doubt in my mind that this is one of the worst (if not the worst) trades Kenny has made as the White Sox GM. First, let's run through three key facts of the trade:
1. Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney were, respectively, the 1st-, 2nd-, and 5th-rated prospects in the White Sox organization.
2. Nick Swisher is a lifetime .251 hitter, with his best season coming last year (.262).
3. Ages of players involved: Swisher, 27; Gonzalez, 22; De Los Santos, 21; Sweeney: 22.
Although I am still suffering from post-traumatic bias (I'm pissed, deal with it), here is my take on the pros and cons of this deal, from the White Sox perspective:
Pros:
Cons:
As much as I love Gio and FDLS, I would have had fewer regrets had we traded them for a quality starting pitcher. Now, however, we gave up two of our biggest trading chips and all but ensured that any deal for a pitcher will involve some of our proven starters (positional or pitchers) instead of prospects. I think KW is a good GM--we wouldn't have won the 2005 World Series if he wasn't. But as many people will tell you, all too often he appears to mistake the amount of ink used during an off-season for productivity. He just took our biggest problem--starting pitching--and not only failed to address it, but actually made it worse. I am all in favor of a GM who refuses to take a year off to rebuild and restructure an organization. But Kenny has to get it through his head that we do not have a chance to win the World Series every year, particularly with Gavin Floyd in our starting rotation. In 2009, Gio and Fautino may have done their part to getting us there; in 2008, Nick Swisher will not. Billy Beane got the better of KW in this one, and Sox fans will suffer for years as a result.
1. Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos, and Ryan Sweeney were, respectively, the 1st-, 2nd-, and 5th-rated prospects in the White Sox organization.
2. Nick Swisher is a lifetime .251 hitter, with his best season coming last year (.262).
3. Ages of players involved: Swisher, 27; Gonzalez, 22; De Los Santos, 21; Sweeney: 22.
Although I am still suffering from post-traumatic bias (I'm pissed, deal with it), here is my take on the pros and cons of this deal, from the White Sox perspective:
Pros:
- Swisher gives us a very good OBP player at the top of the line-up (6th in the AL in walks in '07), likely in the number 2 spot. He puts up decent power stats for his size (22 HR, 80 RBI, .455 SLG in '07).
- Aside from Aaron Rowand (and maybe Eric Byrnes), there may not be another major league outfielder who personifies the 'grinderball' mentality the way Swisher does. He goes all-out every game and hates taking a day off (150+ games in each of the past two seasons).
- Swisher is signed through 2011, with an option for 2012. This adds tremendous stability to a previously shaky outfield.
Cons:
- We gave up three of the top-five prospects in our already extremely weak farm system, including the top two. I understand Kenny doesn't believe in a rebuilding year, but he greatly mortgaged our future to obtain present mediocrity (let's face it, the odds of us winning the Central are slim). If you're tempted to think Swisher is worth Gonzalez, FDLS, and Sweeney, consider this: the Yankees and the Red Sox have been torn as to whether or not three top-five prospects were worth giving up for Johan Santana! Kenny often fails to understand or under/overestimate market value, as seen here.
- The top two prospects sacrificed by the Sox were both starting pitchers. When we traded Garland for Cabrera, our immediate concern became starting pitching. The Linebrink signing didn't solve this. The Alexei Ramirez signing didn't solve this. The Juan Uribe signing didn't solve this. I can't begin to tell you how excited I was at the prospect of a competition for the 5-starter's spot this Spring Training, which I was praying Gonzalez would take by storm (I have said before and I will say again, Gavin Floyd is not a major league-caliber pitcher). I have visions of him becoming a poor-man's Francisco Liriano, and FDLS supposedly has even better stuff. For someone who has consistently given up position players for pitching, why did Kenny suddenly decide to pull a 180, particularly considering the influx of position players we've acquired this off-season? It just baffles me. If the Red Sox can win the World Series with Coco Crisp and J.D. Drew patrolling their outfield, a mixture of Jerry Owens, Carlos Quentin, Alexei Ramirez, and Ryan Sweeney would have worked sufficiently for us. What will not work is a starting rotation with three gaping question marks.
- Speaking of outfielders, let's look at who will be roaming the green at The Cell this season: Swisher, Carlos Quentin, Dye, Jerry Owens, and maybe Alexei Ramirez. While Swisher is certainly an immediate upgrade over whomever he is ultimately replacing (depending on whether he plays left or center), do you seriously believe that at the end of the day, his stats will be significantly better than some combination of Quentin-Owens-Ramirez at the same position? There will no doubt be some improvement, but I have a very hard time seeing it being worth Gio and Fautino.
- While I have said that I like Quentin and think he can be a very solid platoon player (at least to start), this trade makes the deal for Chris Carter look much worse. Given that Carter was universally recognized as a top-10 White Sox prospect, and even as high as number 4 (Baseball Prospectus), we've now shipped out 4 of our top 7 or so prospects in one off-season. Did we get an all-star for them? No. We received two outfielders with very limited ceilings. In light of bringing in Swisher (and yes, I know hindsight is 20/20), there is no way we should have given up Carter.
- On a similar note, we just seriously disrupted the development of both Quentin and Alexei Ramirez, who I feel has the highest ceiling of anyone in the White Sox organization not named Josh Fields. Alexei isn't young (26), and so we needed to throw him into the mix soon to get the most out of him. Essentially, while the Swisher trade hedges against the possible downsides to the previous outfield signings, it also drastically limits their potential upsides.
As much as I love Gio and FDLS, I would have had fewer regrets had we traded them for a quality starting pitcher. Now, however, we gave up two of our biggest trading chips and all but ensured that any deal for a pitcher will involve some of our proven starters (positional or pitchers) instead of prospects. I think KW is a good GM--we wouldn't have won the 2005 World Series if he wasn't. But as many people will tell you, all too often he appears to mistake the amount of ink used during an off-season for productivity. He just took our biggest problem--starting pitching--and not only failed to address it, but actually made it worse. I am all in favor of a GM who refuses to take a year off to rebuild and restructure an organization. But Kenny has to get it through his head that we do not have a chance to win the World Series every year, particularly with Gavin Floyd in our starting rotation. In 2009, Gio and Fautino may have done their part to getting us there; in 2008, Nick Swisher will not. Billy Beane got the better of KW in this one, and Sox fans will suffer for years as a result.
The Off-Season Transactions Thus Far
The off-season, now about halfway over, has been very dramatic and rumor-filled, if not excessively busy. The following is an analysis and 'grade' of the biggest White Sox stories since the World Series:
1. Letting Scott Podsednik, Alex Cintron, and Darin Erstad go - In the 2005 season, there was no bigger Podsednik supporter than myself, and no Sox fan can dispute his effectiveness at the top of our order during our World Series run. However, he broke into the league as a (I think) 27-year-old rookie, and as such it can be assumed the peak of his career was his 2004 season with the Brewers and 2005 season with the Sox. His stolen base success rate had dropped dramatically from his stellar 2005 campaign, no doubt due to his increasing proneness to injury. Jerry Owens is the same style of player, only younger, cheaper, and (now) more successful on the basepaths, so their was no need to keep Podsednik around. Cintron, meanwhile, had some clutch hits in his time on the South Side, but his 2007 season was so poor, even by Sox standards, that Kenny had little choice but to let him go. No loss here, particularly with the excess of middle infielders created by the Cabrera and Ramirez acquisitions. Same goes for Erstad, who would have been a solid acquisition by KW had he not been injured so frequently.
Final Assessment: This was a no-brainer, as each of these players had exhausted their time in Chicago. There will always be a spot in our hearts for Scotty P. (hence the painted seat in center to mark his walk-off in the WS), but he would be of little use next season.
2. The Garland-for-Cabrera swap - I'm torn on this trade, just because there is no way properly judge it until the season. On one hand, Cabrera is a clear offensive upgrade at the shortstop position, particularly in the Ozzieball system. His OBP and OPS are probably not as high as Ozzie or Kenny would like out of the 1 or 2 spot, but he does do a good job of getting on base, creating opportunities with his feet, and collecting clutch hits. I was also never entirely sold on Garland--people have said he had the best stuff on the team since 2003 or so, but he was far too hittable and his win totals in 2004 and 2005 (36 total, tied for Chris Carpenter for best in the Majors, as all Garland supporters incessantly remind us) were highly misleading given his ERA totals (anybody who tallies 18 wins in consecutive seasons should be given automatic consideration for the Cy Young; not Garland). However, while Garland was not and will never be a staff ace, he is a strikingly solid number-3 starter. Contreras is becoming a joke, and Gavin Floyd should never be a starter on any major league team, particularly in the competitive AL Central. Shortstop was a position in need of an upgrade for the Sox, but it was nowhere near the most pressing issue for. Uribe gives you pretty good pop out of the 8 or 9 spot (though I do think he will be incredibly valuable in a utility role, see below), whereas Garland's absence creates a huge void in the middle of the rotation.
Final Assessment: A few things need to happen for this trade to ultimately work out favorably for the Sox. First, we need to sign Cabrera to a two-,three-, or four-year deal. There is no benefit to a swap of one-year contracts unless a.) you resign the player you receive at or below market value (given pending free agency), b.) he helps you contend for that one year, c.) his contract opens up significant cap space, or d.) you trade him before the deadline to a contender for young talent. Because Orlando's not necessarily the impact player teams look for at the deadline (even though he did go to the Red Sox in July of 2004) but still a very solid shortstop, the Sox need to seriously consider grabbing him through 2010. Secondly, we need to give up on Gavin and hold a heated Spring Training competition between Gio Gonzalez, Lance Broadway, and Jack Egbert for the 5th starter's spot. I've only seen Gio pitch on YouTube, but you can just tell that he has the stuff to be a big-game pitcher. This 5th starter has to be at least moderately productive to give us a fighting chance of making the playoffs, though I am starting to think it may be beneficial to sacrifice fifteen to twenty games just to give them the big league experience. Lastly, and most obviously, Garland has to have a mediocre season for the Angels. If this is the case, we probably wouldn't have tried to resign him in free agency, and we would have gotten 50 cents on the dollar for him before the trade deadline. As it stands now, however, this trade appears to have done more harm than good.
3. Signing Scott Linebrink to a 4-year, $19+ million deal - I hate to admit it, but I'm very pessimistic about this acquisition. His stats show that he's clearly on the decline, and this happened in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park. There's no questioning that we overpaid dearly for him (as if $19 million wasn't enough, we lose a second-round pick; I would have much rather just gone into our farm system and settled for something cheaper, though less effective), and I'm terrified that he's going to get shelled at The Cell. He reminds me a lot of Dustin Hermanson a couple years ago--will probably fool hitters at the beginning of the year, but there is no way he is going to last a whole season, let alone four, staying healthy and acting as a solid bridge between the bullpen and Bobby.
Final Assessment: No doubt it upgraded our anemic bullpen, but it came at far too high a price. Will ultimately hurt us.
4. Trading Chris Carter for Carlos Quentin - Again, it's very tough to immediately judge the impact of this trade on either team, as the players are in such different stages of their respective careers. While Carter will likely be a good to very good power hitter with some time, Quentin looks like he can be a very effective platooning outfielder as early as Opening Day. Though injuries have limited his ceiling, I'm hesitantly optimistic about his ability--there's no denying he has the potential to be a major contributor.
Final Assessment: With first base solidified and the outfield in serious question, I'm tempted to think that this sacrifice was worthwhile. It will turn against us, however, if Carter becomes the next Konerko, while Quentin develops into a career utility player. Starting to sound like the Chris Young for Javy Vasquez trade (though I'm still a defender of KW on this one)...
5. Resigning Juan Uribe to a one-year deal - Contrary to the majority of baseball critics and experts, I hated this deal before we brought in Cabrera, and love it now. He's shown that he has the offensive pop to be an everyday player, but that his ability is limited by his impatience at the plate. He also played a significant amount of second base in Colorado, should Richar slip up. Couple these facts with his knack for coming up with big hits every so often, and he immediately becomes one of the best reserve middle infielders in the league.
Final Assessment: Putting Juan in a more limited role should, oddly enough, maximize his output, and I am confident that his improvements at the plate will be one of the big storylines for the White Sox in 2008.
6. Signing Alexei Ramirez to a 4-year, $4.75 milion deal - I cannot begin to describe my excitement about bringing Alexei on board--I was keeping my fingers crossed since I first heard about him in November, and became more optimistic when we missed out on Torii and Aaron. Again, I've only seen him on YouTube, but from what I hear, the kid can flat-out play. With a little bit of time and coaching he can be a legitimate 5-tool player, and he gives us an immediate boost both in the infield and outfield. Watching his swing and swagger, he reminds me a lot of a young Alfonso Soriano; this should bring ecstasy to the hearts and minds of Sox fans everywhere, but surprisingly enough, this deal has gone very much under the radar of baseball followers, no doubt due to the fact that nothing is final until he passes a physical (should be in the next week or so). I understand that Cuban ball is essentially the equivalent of Single A ball, but he showed that he can hit in the WBC, and I really see Contreras helping him to seamlessly assimilate into the White Sox organization (glad Jose is good for something at what we're paying him). I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a KW pick-up.
Final Assessment: Extremely low-risk financial investment with a potentially astronomical reward. I know I'm in the minority camp, but I see this kid becoming a star, even if it's not with the Sox.
1. Letting Scott Podsednik, Alex Cintron, and Darin Erstad go - In the 2005 season, there was no bigger Podsednik supporter than myself, and no Sox fan can dispute his effectiveness at the top of our order during our World Series run. However, he broke into the league as a (I think) 27-year-old rookie, and as such it can be assumed the peak of his career was his 2004 season with the Brewers and 2005 season with the Sox. His stolen base success rate had dropped dramatically from his stellar 2005 campaign, no doubt due to his increasing proneness to injury. Jerry Owens is the same style of player, only younger, cheaper, and (now) more successful on the basepaths, so their was no need to keep Podsednik around. Cintron, meanwhile, had some clutch hits in his time on the South Side, but his 2007 season was so poor, even by Sox standards, that Kenny had little choice but to let him go. No loss here, particularly with the excess of middle infielders created by the Cabrera and Ramirez acquisitions. Same goes for Erstad, who would have been a solid acquisition by KW had he not been injured so frequently.
Final Assessment: This was a no-brainer, as each of these players had exhausted their time in Chicago. There will always be a spot in our hearts for Scotty P. (hence the painted seat in center to mark his walk-off in the WS), but he would be of little use next season.
2. The Garland-for-Cabrera swap - I'm torn on this trade, just because there is no way properly judge it until the season. On one hand, Cabrera is a clear offensive upgrade at the shortstop position, particularly in the Ozzieball system. His OBP and OPS are probably not as high as Ozzie or Kenny would like out of the 1 or 2 spot, but he does do a good job of getting on base, creating opportunities with his feet, and collecting clutch hits. I was also never entirely sold on Garland--people have said he had the best stuff on the team since 2003 or so, but he was far too hittable and his win totals in 2004 and 2005 (36 total, tied for Chris Carpenter for best in the Majors, as all Garland supporters incessantly remind us) were highly misleading given his ERA totals (anybody who tallies 18 wins in consecutive seasons should be given automatic consideration for the Cy Young; not Garland). However, while Garland was not and will never be a staff ace, he is a strikingly solid number-3 starter. Contreras is becoming a joke, and Gavin Floyd should never be a starter on any major league team, particularly in the competitive AL Central. Shortstop was a position in need of an upgrade for the Sox, but it was nowhere near the most pressing issue for. Uribe gives you pretty good pop out of the 8 or 9 spot (though I do think he will be incredibly valuable in a utility role, see below), whereas Garland's absence creates a huge void in the middle of the rotation.
Final Assessment: A few things need to happen for this trade to ultimately work out favorably for the Sox. First, we need to sign Cabrera to a two-,three-, or four-year deal. There is no benefit to a swap of one-year contracts unless a.) you resign the player you receive at or below market value (given pending free agency), b.) he helps you contend for that one year, c.) his contract opens up significant cap space, or d.) you trade him before the deadline to a contender for young talent. Because Orlando's not necessarily the impact player teams look for at the deadline (even though he did go to the Red Sox in July of 2004) but still a very solid shortstop, the Sox need to seriously consider grabbing him through 2010. Secondly, we need to give up on Gavin and hold a heated Spring Training competition between Gio Gonzalez, Lance Broadway, and Jack Egbert for the 5th starter's spot. I've only seen Gio pitch on YouTube, but you can just tell that he has the stuff to be a big-game pitcher. This 5th starter has to be at least moderately productive to give us a fighting chance of making the playoffs, though I am starting to think it may be beneficial to sacrifice fifteen to twenty games just to give them the big league experience. Lastly, and most obviously, Garland has to have a mediocre season for the Angels. If this is the case, we probably wouldn't have tried to resign him in free agency, and we would have gotten 50 cents on the dollar for him before the trade deadline. As it stands now, however, this trade appears to have done more harm than good.
3. Signing Scott Linebrink to a 4-year, $19+ million deal - I hate to admit it, but I'm very pessimistic about this acquisition. His stats show that he's clearly on the decline, and this happened in pitcher-friendly PetCo Park. There's no questioning that we overpaid dearly for him (as if $19 million wasn't enough, we lose a second-round pick; I would have much rather just gone into our farm system and settled for something cheaper, though less effective), and I'm terrified that he's going to get shelled at The Cell. He reminds me a lot of Dustin Hermanson a couple years ago--will probably fool hitters at the beginning of the year, but there is no way he is going to last a whole season, let alone four, staying healthy and acting as a solid bridge between the bullpen and Bobby.
Final Assessment: No doubt it upgraded our anemic bullpen, but it came at far too high a price. Will ultimately hurt us.
4. Trading Chris Carter for Carlos Quentin - Again, it's very tough to immediately judge the impact of this trade on either team, as the players are in such different stages of their respective careers. While Carter will likely be a good to very good power hitter with some time, Quentin looks like he can be a very effective platooning outfielder as early as Opening Day. Though injuries have limited his ceiling, I'm hesitantly optimistic about his ability--there's no denying he has the potential to be a major contributor.
Final Assessment: With first base solidified and the outfield in serious question, I'm tempted to think that this sacrifice was worthwhile. It will turn against us, however, if Carter becomes the next Konerko, while Quentin develops into a career utility player. Starting to sound like the Chris Young for Javy Vasquez trade (though I'm still a defender of KW on this one)...
5. Resigning Juan Uribe to a one-year deal - Contrary to the majority of baseball critics and experts, I hated this deal before we brought in Cabrera, and love it now. He's shown that he has the offensive pop to be an everyday player, but that his ability is limited by his impatience at the plate. He also played a significant amount of second base in Colorado, should Richar slip up. Couple these facts with his knack for coming up with big hits every so often, and he immediately becomes one of the best reserve middle infielders in the league.
Final Assessment: Putting Juan in a more limited role should, oddly enough, maximize his output, and I am confident that his improvements at the plate will be one of the big storylines for the White Sox in 2008.
6. Signing Alexei Ramirez to a 4-year, $4.75 milion deal - I cannot begin to describe my excitement about bringing Alexei on board--I was keeping my fingers crossed since I first heard about him in November, and became more optimistic when we missed out on Torii and Aaron. Again, I've only seen him on YouTube, but from what I hear, the kid can flat-out play. With a little bit of time and coaching he can be a legitimate 5-tool player, and he gives us an immediate boost both in the infield and outfield. Watching his swing and swagger, he reminds me a lot of a young Alfonso Soriano; this should bring ecstasy to the hearts and minds of Sox fans everywhere, but surprisingly enough, this deal has gone very much under the radar of baseball followers, no doubt due to the fact that nothing is final until he passes a physical (should be in the next week or so). I understand that Cuban ball is essentially the equivalent of Single A ball, but he showed that he can hit in the WBC, and I really see Contreras helping him to seamlessly assimilate into the White Sox organization (glad Jose is good for something at what we're paying him). I can't remember the last time I was this excited about a KW pick-up.
Final Assessment: Extremely low-risk financial investment with a potentially astronomical reward. I know I'm in the minority camp, but I see this kid becoming a star, even if it's not with the Sox.
Welcome & Happy New Year
First off, congratulations on surviving 2007. Personally, while most of the year was phenomenal, it did have its shortcomings--namely the worst season compiled by the Chicago White Sox since 1989. Oddly enough, their year-long struggles only served to enhance my support of and emotional investment in them, which is in effect the genesis of this blog.
If you are looking for a White Sox blog heavy on statistics and other quantitative analysis, this is not the place for you; I simply don't have the time to spend hours delving into the numbers. What you can expect from me is a consistently updated blog of the opinions, rantings, and ravings of a lifelong White Sox fan who will do anything to prevent a repeat of the atrocity that was the 2007 season.
You should know that I typically despise blogs and the motivation behind blogging--I think they are nothing more than mediums for liberals to complain about political and social issues about which they are uneducated and offer no feasible solutions. That said, I feel as though there's something universally appealing and well-intentioned about sports blogs, particularly for a specific team, that brings fans together in a structured, constructive forum. Call me a hypocrite, just don't call me a Liberal.
Thanks for visiting, happy reading, and Go, Go-Go White Sox.
If you are looking for a White Sox blog heavy on statistics and other quantitative analysis, this is not the place for you; I simply don't have the time to spend hours delving into the numbers. What you can expect from me is a consistently updated blog of the opinions, rantings, and ravings of a lifelong White Sox fan who will do anything to prevent a repeat of the atrocity that was the 2007 season.
You should know that I typically despise blogs and the motivation behind blogging--I think they are nothing more than mediums for liberals to complain about political and social issues about which they are uneducated and offer no feasible solutions. That said, I feel as though there's something universally appealing and well-intentioned about sports blogs, particularly for a specific team, that brings fans together in a structured, constructive forum. Call me a hypocrite, just don't call me a Liberal.
Thanks for visiting, happy reading, and Go, Go-Go White Sox.
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