Monday, January 14, 2008

Top 2008 White Sox Prospects

Baseball America's Phil Rogers released his annual list of the top ten prospects in the White Sox system. They are as follows:

1. Aaron Poreda
2. Lance Broadway
3. Jack Egbert
4. Jose Martinez
5. Chris Getz
6. John Ely
7. Juan Silverio
8. John Shelby
9. Adam Russell
10. Kyle McCulloch

A few comments on this piece. First, it's all but assured that Poreda is the unanimous top pick--we can agree on this much. Rogers says that even if the Alexei Ramirez deal had been finalized by now (physical still pending), Poreda would still be number one. Second, it's all but assured that McCulloch has a very low ceiling and will not become anything more than a sub-par 5th starter, if that. Third, Juan Silverio could (and should) become the face of the Sox in a few years, assuming Kenny doesn't ship him off. He's a 16-year-old shortstop from the Dominican (I think) who is apparently a freakish athlete with the tools to become something special. His age, of course, that he won't be ready for years; Rogers says at least 2011 in an earlier article.

Right now, I really believe Lance Broadway is the key to our farm system's success, a claim many will dispute. For one, let's acknowledge that there aren't a lot of people sold on Broadway, and Rogers is probably at least 2 spots off in his assessment. Essentially, he's a finesse pitcher without an excess of control (newly developed), which is kind of the definition of an inherent problem. However, his off-speed stuff, namely his curveball, is so impressive (best in the system, no question) that it could mask his other deficiencies in the event that they become less glaring. This gives him the potential to develop into a poor man's Barry Zito, who is certainly not worth $126 million but did win a Cy Young.

I guess my point is this: people are beginning to lose faith in Lance. If he busts, he's just another posterboy for the inadequacies of the White Sox farm system and a waste of a first-round draft pick. But if he becomes a solid number 4 starter in 2 years, which is certainly possible, we would have taken a low-ceiling guy and put him in a role in which little is expected of him in order to allow him to maximize his limited potential. He will never be a staff ace, but we don't need him to be one--lest we forget, our problems lie at the back end of the rotation. Sure, this isn't exactly the ideal scenario for a former first-round pick, but hindsight is 20/2o and you play the cards you're dealt.

Rogers' full piece can be read here.

Quickly, another huge point which I have skipped over is the utter lack of non-pitching prospects--terrifying. More on that at a later date.

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