Where the Sox Go From Here

I've been trying to write this post for some time, I just haven't been able to devote enough thought to make it worth anyone's while (including mine) until now. Hope I'm not wasting your time, as I'm not even confident in my own ideas at the moment.

Where the Sox stand: We (or just Kenny) are looking to compete for a World Series title in 2008. This is dreadfully optimistic by any stretch of the imagination, so let's just say we're looking to make the postseason. The Tigers and the Indians are clearly the front-runners in the AL Central, while the Twins are looking to sell Santana for a ring in 2010 and/or 2011 and the Royals are, well, the Royals (Note: the Twins agreed to deal Santana to the Mets pending a physical while I was writing this). With this in mind, let's say that our current standing puts us in 3rd place in the division. There is no shame in this, as the Central should prove to be the most competitive division in baseball; however, there's also no glory in calling it a season in September, so we have some work to do. Scott Merkin, the White Sox beat writer for MLB.com, envisions us as a 84- to 87-win team in his latest mailbag, which should put us right in the mix for third. However, Merkin tends to paint an excessively bright picture of the organization regardless of the circumstances, so the fact that he doesn't even see us competing for a playoff spot should be of great concern. So, if we really are committed to bringing another championship to the South Side, Kenny's busy offseason cannot end until Opening Day.

What the Sox should do: There is absolutely no question that starting pitching is the most vulnerable area for the Sox as things stand right now. Our projected back three starters each had an ERA over 5.00 last season, and a repeat of this will ensure we don't hit 75 wins, not to mention the 90+ it will take for a playoff berth. Now, keep in mind that Contreras was going through an ugly divorce (it wouldn't be the first time personal issues have carried over onto the field) and Danks started the season as a 21-year old. However, hoping for at least two massive rebound seasons, let alone three, is taking a HUGE leap of faith, particularly when Gavin Floyd has hardly even shown flashes of competence as a major league starter.

We can all agree that Joe Crede is our most logical trade chip. His contract is very affordable at just over $5 million this season, and he boasts both above-average offensive power and all-around defense. San Francisco is the most obvious destination for him, for a number of reasons. First, they currently do not have a 3rd baseman--Pedro Feliz rejected their two-year offer before signing with the Phillies, which was just about the best thing that could have happened to the Sox. Second, they have zero team power (I mean, struggling to hit 100 HR) after losing Barry. Third, the combination of Crede and Omar Vizquel on the left side of the infield could be almost impenetrable. Fourth, the fact that his contract expires after this year is beneficial in two ways: one, it limits the downside risk should he get injured again, and two, the Giants' third base super-prospect Angel Villalona may be ready by Opening Day 2009.

Fifth, and most importantly from the White Sox perspective, the Giants have the pitching strength and depth to make a deal for a starter feasible. We could try to get Noah Lowry in a straight-up swap, or better yet, throw in a package for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum. The question becomes, what package could bait Brian Sabean into giving up Cain or Lincecum? One idea is to dangle Crede, Aaron Poreda (the Sox new number one prospect), and another piece, be it a prospect or everyday player. Poreda has a fairly high ceiling and attended the University of San Francisco, so it's actually relatively conceivable. On the flip side, KW would have given up another top prospect (five in this offseason alone, none of which brought in a superstar), and I'm not sure Sox fans would respond kindly to further mortgaging our future for the terribly marginal chance of winning one this year. It certainly is an intriguing thought, however, particularly if it could land us Cain.

For fun's sake, let's say this Crede & Poreda deal goes through and Matt Cain is in a White Sox uniform come April 1st. What then? Clearly, the organization's main goal needs to be rebuilding the farm system. This means, first and foremost, taking a major league-ready prospect with the 9th pick in the June draft. (We could have had another solid pick if it weren't for the Linebrink signing, but we'll have to deal.) As I mentioned in an earlier post, we wait to see how we fare throughout the season before deciding what to do with Orlando Cabrera (assuming we don't sign him to an extension in the near future)--if we're winning, let him go after the season and grab the compensation picks; if we're losing, trade him to a contender for prospects. Another viable package option is Brian Anderson, who is all but done with this organization, but probably won't get much in return unless he has a stellar Spring Training.

Let's hope the one time we actually need Kenny to make some moves, he doesn't get cold feet. As painfully ironic as that would be, it wouldn't compare to the agony of watching Gavin Floyd start for an entire season.