There's Work Left to be Done

So, despite the somewhat overwhelming optimism in my last post, I have a number of concerns about things we still have to accomplish to compete this year. In order of importance, here they are.

1. The 5th Starter's Spot - I really don't mean to sound like a broken record in saying that I just don't see Gavin Floyd getting it done, but, frankly, I just don't see Gavin Floyd getting it done. All the coaches were raving about his progress in the opening week of ST, and yet he got shelled in his only start thus far. Yes, he is recovering from the flu, but this isn't how you're supposed to pitch when proving that you belong in a big league rotation. Being as even-minded as I am, I will withhold final judgment until after his next start; if he falters, I will be the first to throw him under the bus. You cannot tell me with a straight face that KW honestly believes that he is confident in Floyd's ability to go .500 at the 5 spot. Given that KW wants to compete this year, how can he possibly think that Floyd gives him the best option to play in October? This is what baffles me more than anything else Kenny dishes out, as it is so strikingly contradictory.

Floyd's done, end of story. So why not give the last rotation spot to someone on the up-and-coming, namely Jack Egbert or Lance Broadway? The difference in wins produced (on the downside) can't possibly exceed two relative to Floyd's numbers, and Egbert and Broadway aren't getting any younger, either. Yes, I understand that coaches know infinitely more about their team than do fans, but if everyone is complaining about Floyd and raving about Egbert, clearly the latter's doing something right.

One other option has to do, ironically, with a lack of options (good baseball pun, I know). That's right, the chip in the McCarthy trade not known as John Danks, Nick Masset. He's out of options, which means he's going to start the season on the 25-man roster, as we all know how quick KW is to give up on his projects. However, he's been HORRIBLE out of the bullpen, and what did he do in his one start versus the Cubs on May 20? 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 K, 3 BB. It's not Buehrle's no-hitter, and it's clearly a microscopic sample size, but it's more respectable than anything Floyd has been able to produce.

So if Floyd continues to suck during ST, and Masset's already going to be on the roster, why not give him the first two starts out of the 5 spot? There are so many aberrations in early April as teams and players try to adjust to the season that anything can happen to anyone on a given day, so even if he doesn't pitch well, Masset can get lucky. Another option would be to alternate Masset and Floyd out of the 5 spot depending on how they performed in their last outing, and sticking the odd man in long-relief duty to keep their arms loose. It's unconventional, no doubt, but it serves as almost an in-season competition, which we'd like to think leads to improved performances out of proud major league pitchers. But to say that Floyd is being handed the spot essentially regardless of his ST numbers is so contradictory to the goals and mindset of this team that it is almost maddening.

2. Saturation at 3B - Let's get two things straight: 1. Josh Fields will have a more dominating offensive season than Joe Crede. 2. Josh has improved on defense, while Joe has been showing severe signs of rust (4 throwing errors already).

Don't believe me about the first claim? Consider this, then: Josh Fields hit 23 HR and 67 RBI in 373 AB last year, his rookie season; the only time Joe has topped 23 HR was in 2006, when he hit 30 in 544 AB, and drove in 94. Had Fields kept up his production for the additional 171 AB Crede received in 2006, he would have hit 33.5 HR and driven in 98 runs, despite hitting lower in the order than did Crede. Supplement this with the fact that Joe is almost 5 years older than Josh and is coming off back surgery, and there is little doubt that Josh is set to be the more productive player this season.

Yes, we had all assumed that Joe would be gone by now, because at this point he's just blocking Josh's progression. However, there need to be buyers to sell to, and the market for recovering 3B with average OBP skills is very small. San Francisco doesn't want a one-year rental who is only marginally more productive than their last 3B (Pedro Feliz), and we don't want what they are offering. At this point, the Dodgers make the most sense for Joe, as Nomar is injured and slipping, and Andy LaRoche is out for about two months. A scenario that I have considered which hasn't garnished a whole lot of talk is the Dodgers take Crede until LaRoche gets healthy, and then they try to trade him to a contender around the deadline for a piece they need, as they figure to be pushing for the playoffs as well. On the flipside, it wouldn't do them much good should Crede get injured early, leaving them with three 3B on the DL.

If we should be forced to hold on to Crede, as his .091 ST BA isn't exactly making his trade value soar, we have already been told that Fields will start the season in AAA. Why? Why in God's name would we keep the more productive player out of the line-up, simply because Crede has 'earned' the right to be there? Yes, it helps us showcase him for a trade, but showcasing takes a backseat to winning. I can't begin to tell you how worried I am that Crede doesn't return to form this season, in which case not only will there be a void of suitors for him, Fields spends time in the minors for virtually no reason.

Then there are the rumors that Konerko could be traded, which would open up 1B for Josh (people keep mentioning bringing Swisher into first, but then it accomplishes nothing for the Crede/Fields saga). However, this a trade that sacrifices Paulie to accommodate Joe, while it should be the other way around. Yes, we would likely get some much needed starting pitching in return, and if done early this move keeps us from dealing with Paulie after he has full no-trade protection (which become effective in early June, I believe), but this hurts us both offensively and defensively, as a Fields/Crede combo is inferior to either a Fields/Konerko or Crede/Konerko combo at the plate, and Fields hasn't played a day of 1B since being drafted. Add this to the fact that Paulie is the most beloved Sox player not named Buehrle, and there would be an uproar on Michigan Ave. months before Ozzie stripped naked.

I think our best option is to sell Crede to the Dodgers now at about 75 cents on the dollar (if that) for a respectable but not phenomenal starting pitching prospect, coupling Joe with another piece if needed, and be done with it. Because a few months from now, we may not even get 40 cents on the dollar, as an NL scout referred to him as a below-average 3B right now. Joe was a hero in 2005, but we need to part with history if we are to progress forward.

Coming up next: my other pressing concerns.

Thoughts on Spring Training Thus Far

So I'm back from my Caribbean cruise, which was certainly not without some legendary stories (let's just say it was almost a very short trip for me). But all's well and good, so I am picking up the blog as promised. Here are my preliminary thoughts on the Sox and their 7-8 Cactus League record:

- Alexei Ramirez just may be everything I'd hoped he'd be...and more. A 4-5 debut and a .360 average overall? So long Juan Uribe.
- Linebrink's contract is wayyyyyy too long.
- We can't keep leaning on MacDougal's 'stuff' as a crutch--he needs to be on a very short leash come opening day.
- This will for sure jinx it, but Jose appears to be his old self in terms of velocity, control, and pitch effectiveness. I also am impressed (perhaps shocked is more appropriate) by how much he improved in his last outing after Coop told him to speed up on the mound.
- I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Dewon Day is not a major league-caliber pitcher.
- The John Danks cutter does exist! And he's getting closer to erasing a question mark from the rotation with every start.
- Then again, Gavin Floyd is not exactly helping his own cause, getting hit very, very hard. I've said it since last year, he simply cannot get the job done on a day-to-day basis.
- Dotel's still got it (with the exception of one rough outing). Here's to keeping him off the DL.
- I'm sure Javy's just working out some early-season kinks, but I'd be all for him figuring it out sooner rather than later...
- Why, Joe Crede, why? (More on this in an upcoming post)
- Paulie's back.
- Jerry Owens could and should be the lead-off hitter and CF on opening day (more on this later, too).
- Swisher could be much better than advertised if he stays healthy to play 81 games at the Cell.
- I have this nagging feeling that JD is done.
- Fat Bobby has 0 K through 5 IP. Let's work on that...
- Jason Bourgeois is Pablo Ozuna v. 1.1.

All things considered, I am much more optimistic about this season than I was a month ago. We desperately need to figure out the 5th starter situation (not that there's much to figure out, since barring a 'Day After Tomorrow' situation, Ozzie and KW have said that Gavin will be in the rotation), and the bullpen could make some strides towards consistency (sound familiar), but most of the players are hitting the ball pretty well, and Danks and Contreras seem poised to handle the starter's roles much better than last year.

World Series? Probably not. But at the very least it doesn't look like a 72-90 squad, so at least we're headed in the right direction.